U.S. Import Prices Rise 7.1%, Export Prices Surge 10.2% YoY in June 2026

U.S. import prices rose 0.3 percent in June, a sharp cooling from May's 1.7-percent advance, while export prices fell 0.6 percent — their first monthly decline since May 2025. The monthly figures understate what is happening underneath. On a 12-month basis import prices are up 7.1 percent, the largest over-the-year increase since the index rose 7.7 percent in August 2022, and export prices have climbed 10.2 percent. The annual readings, not the monthly ones, are where this release lives.

A Fuel Reversal Masks Broadening Nonfuel Pressure

June's mild headline conceals a composition shift. Fuels and lubricants import prices fell 0.4 percent — the first monthly drop since the index fell 1.2 percent in January — after surging 12.6 percent in May. Lower petroleum prices more than offset higher natural gas prices within the category:

• Import petroleum: declined 0.7 percent
• Import natural gas: increased 9.2 percent

Over 12 months the fuel complex remains extraordinary.

• Fuels and lubricants import prices are up 44.1 percent,
• petroleum 45.4 percent,
• natural gas 92.9 percent.

Strip fuel out and a steadier, more troubling pattern emerges. Nonfuel import prices rose 0.4 percent in June following a 0.7-percent advance in May, and are up 4.2 percent over the year — the largest 12-month increase since the index rose 4.6 percent for the year ended June 2022. Fuel volatility is loud but mean-reverting; a nonfuel index running above 4 percent is the part that transmits to consumer prices.

The June detail beneath nonfuel imports was mixed:

• Nonfuel industrial supplies and materials: rose 1.2 percent, after a 1.0-percent advance in May
• Capital goods: increased 0.4 percent, led by computers, peripherals, and semiconductors
• Consumer goods, excluding automotives: increased 0.3 percent, a fifth consecutive monthly advance
• Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines: edged down 0.1 percent
• Foods, feeds, and beverages: decreased 0.2 percent, following a 0.3-percent decline in May

Export Prices Break Their Run

Prices for U.S. exports decreased 0.6 percent in June, the first monthly decline since the index fell 0.7 percent in May 2025. Lower nonagricultural prices more than offset higher agricultural prices:

• Nonagricultural exports: decreased 0.7 percent, after rising 1.2 percent in May and 3.7 percent in April
• Agricultural exports: rose 0.2 percent, following a 0.9-percent advance in May
• Nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials: fell 2.1 percent, after increasing 2.4 percent the previous month

The single-month drop barely dents the annual picture. Nonagricultural export prices are up 10.6 percent over 12 months and agricultural export prices 4.6 percent. Finished-goods export categories were uniformly higher in June,

• capital goods up 0.6 percent,
• consumer goods excluding automotives up 0.3 percent,
• automotive vehicles, parts, and engines up 0.1 percent.

Import Prices From China Post Their Largest Monthly Rise Since 2008

The locality data carries the most striking figure in the release. Import prices from China increased 0.9 percent in June, the largest monthly advance since the index rose 0.9 percent in January 2008. Over 12 months, prices for imports from China rose 1.3 percent — the largest over-the-year increase since the index advanced 1.7 percent from November 2021 to November 2022. After years in which Chinese import prices were a persistent disinflationary force, that channel has closed.

Other trading partners diverged:

• Canada: import prices increased 1.2 percent
• Mexico: import prices ticked up 0.1 percent
• Japan: import prices decreased 0.6 percent, after increases of 0.3 percent in May and 0.5 percent in April
• European Union: import prices edged down 0.1 percent, the first monthly decline since the index fell 0.1 percent in June 2025

Terms of trade — the purchasing power of exports relative to imports — moved against the United States where it matters most. The U.S. terms of trade index with China decreased 1.1 percent in June following a 0.9-percent increase in May, the largest monthly decrease since the index fell 2.5 percent in June 2025. The index with the European Union decreased 1.3 percent after rising 0.3 percent in May, while the indexes with Japan and Canada increased 1.1 percent and 0.7 percent respectively.

Air Freight and Fares Keep Climbing

Transportation services continue to run hot. Import air passenger fares advanced 12.6 percent in June after an 11.3-percent increase in May, the largest monthly increase since the index rose 14.0 percent in September 2025, with higher European, Asian, and Latin American/Caribbean fares driving the advance. Import air freight prices rose 1.9 percent in June following a 19.1-percent jump in May, and are up 33.8 percent over the past year — the largest 12-month advance since the index increased 35.2 percent for the year ended November 2021.

The export side was softer. Export air passenger fares advanced 3.5 percent after a 3.3-percent decrease the previous month, but are down 0.2 percent over 12 months. Export air freight prices decreased 3.6 percent in June, the largest monthly decline since the index fell 5.0 percent in December 2024, though they remain 8.8 percent above their year-ago level.

What to Watch

One caveat belongs on any chart of this series: some October and November 2025 values are unavailable because of the 2025 lapse in appropriations, leaving a genuine gap in the index history rather than a flat reading.

The July release is scheduled for Tuesday, August 18, 2026, and the number to watch is not the headline. It is nonfuel import prices, currently running at 4.2 percent over 12 months. Fuel's 44.1-percent annual gain will fade mechanically as the 2025 base rolls forward, dragging the headline down regardless of what happens to underlying prices. Nonfuel will not. If nonfuel posts another 0.4-percent monthly gain in July, its annual rate rises even as the headline decelerates — and the story stops being about energy.