U.S. Import Prices Rise 2.1%, Export Prices Surge 5.6% YoY in March 2026

U.S. trade prices accelerated sharply in March 2026, with import prices climbing 2.1% year-over-year and export prices surging 5.6% over the same period — the largest annual advance for exports since November 2022. On a monthly basis, import prices rose 0.8% and export prices gained 1.6%, extending a streak of consecutive monthly increases that began in January. The breadth of the advance, spanning fuel and nonfuel categories on the import side and both agricultural and nonagricultural goods on the export side, signals that trade price pressures are becoming more entrenched heading into the second quarter.

Import Price Pressures Broaden Beyond Energy

The 0.8% monthly gain in import prices was driven by a combination of fuel and nonfuel categories, though the dynamics within each were striking. Fuel imports rose 2.9% in March — the steepest monthly advance since January 2025 — as petroleum and petroleum products surged 9.4%. That gain was partially offset by a dramatic 71.0% collapse in natural gas import prices, which followed a cumulative 77.3% rise over the prior three months. On a 12-month basis, import fuels and lubricants remained in deflationary territory, down 6.0%, with petroleum products off 4.2% and natural gas prices down 49.8% year-over-year.

Nonfuel imports, which carry far more weight in the index, rose 0.6% in March and 2.8% year-over-year — the largest annual advance since October 2022. The breadth of gains was notable:

• Nonfuel industrial supplies and materials led with a 1.6% monthly increase, driven by finished metals shapes and major nonferrous metals.
• Capital goods rose 0.5%, lifted by computers, semiconductors, civilian aircraft, and industrial machinery.
• Consumer goods excluding automotives gained 0.4%, with pharmaceutical preparatory materials as the key driver.
• Foods, feeds, and beverages increased 0.5%, with vegetables, fruit, fish, and sugar contributing.
• Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines recorded no change in March.

A notable methodological change took effect with this release: directly collected data for import natural gas prices has been replaced with non-survey sources. The BLS confirmed this transition did not create a break in the series with previously published indexes.

Export Prices Post Strongest Annual Gain Since Late 2022

Export prices rose 1.6% in March and 5.6% year-over-year, the largest 12-month advance since November 2022. Both agricultural and nonagricultural categories contributed to the monthly gain, though the composition of the advance differed meaningfully from the import side.

Agricultural exports increased 0.9% in March, matching February's pace, with soybeans, fruit, and meat driving the advance. Over the past year, agricultural export prices are up 3.4%, as soybean and meat price gains more than offset weakness in corn.

Nonagricultural exports — which account for the bulk of U.S. export value — rose 1.7% in March and 5.8% year-over-year. The monthly gain was concentrated in nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials, which jumped 4.3%, propelled by crude petroleum, other petroleum products, and fuel oil. Finished goods export prices were softer: capital goods fell 0.2% (with semiconductors and industrial machinery weighing), and consumer goods excluding automotives declined 0.2% — the first monthly decrease since September 2025.

By destination, export prices to Mexico surged 3.2% in March, the largest monthly increase since May 2022, while exports to China rose 2.3% — the biggest monthly gain since October 2024. Exports to the European Union advanced 2.6% and exports to Japan declined 0.5%.

Terms of Trade Shift in Favor of U.S. Exporters

With export prices rising faster than import prices on both a monthly and annual basis, the U.S. terms of trade improved across most bilateral relationships in March. The U.S. terms of trade index with China rose 1.6%, recovering from a 0.6% decline in February. The index with the European Union increased 2.3%, extending a 2.4% gain from the prior month. Terms of trade with Canada and Mexico improved 0.8% and 2.4%, respectively. Only the index with Japan edged lower, declining 0.3% after a 2.3% advance in February.

On the services side, import air passenger fares rose 2.0% in March and are up 1.3% year-over-year. Import air freight fell 2.0% for the month but remains 8.3% higher year-over-year. Export air passenger fares rebounded 5.6% in March after an 11.9% drop in February, and are up 1.3% over the past year.

The next Import and Export Price Indexes release, covering April 2026 data, is scheduled for Thursday, May 14, 2026. The critical data point to watch will be whether nonfuel import prices sustain their 2.8% annual pace — a further acceleration would signal that tariff-related cost pressures are feeding through the supply chain more broadly, while a deceleration would suggest the March surge was concentrated in commodity-linked categories.